Inflation that Won't Relent
Despite the efforts of global central banks, services inflation and energy costs remain high in 2026. This "higher for longer" scenario in the USA and Europe directly impacts Brazil. With high American interest rates, capital tends to leave emerging markets in search of safety, putting pressure on our currencies and importing inflation.
Trade Balance in Focus
Brazil, as a major exporter of commodities, is experiencing a dilemma. On the one hand, the high dollar favors soybean and iron ore exporters. On the other hand, the increase in logistics and agricultural input costs linked to the dollar erodes profit margins. The balance of trade in 2026 will depend on Chinese demand and the stability of global supply chains.
Consequences for the Brazilian Consumer
Global inflation ends up "leaking" onto Brazilian supermarket shelves. Fuel and food are the most affected, generating social and political pressure for subsidy measures, which often worsen the fiscal situation mentioned above.
- Commodities: Protection factor for the Brazilian trade balance.
- Fed interest rates: The most important global indicator to track.
- Freight Cost: Direct impact on exporters’ profit margins.